Xa ndijonga emva kowama-2024, imfuno yasekhaya yayibuthathaka, ukunikezelwa kwempahla kwahlala kunamandla aphezulu, kwaye ixabiso langoku le-iron ore laliphantsi koxinzelelo lokuba lehle phantsi kwephethini yokunikezelwa kwempahla ekhululekileyo kunye nemfuno. Imigaqo-nkqubo yasekhaya nakwamanye amazwe ibonelele ngamandla aqhubayo anyukayo ngokwezigaba.
Uphononongo lweeNdlela zeXabiso leZimbiwa ngo-2024
Ixabiso le-iron ore ngo-2024 lilonke lingahlulwahlulwa libe ngamanqanaba amane.
Isigaba sokuQala: Kwikota yokuqala ka-2024, amathemba aqinisekileyo emigaqo-nkqubo yasekhaya azalisekile, ixabiso lenkqubo emnyama liye lawa, ifestile yokunciphisa inzala yeFederal Reserve yalibaziseka ngokuphindaphindiweyo, iinjongo zeNational Two Sessions bezihambelana namathemba, izinga lokukhula elijoliswe kulo le-GDP (imveliso yasekhaya iyonke), izinga lokusilela ekujoliswe kulo, kunye ne-1 trillion yuan special treasury bond azidlulanga amathemba emarike, imfuno yesiphelo yayibuthathaka, ukubuyiselwa kwemfuno yasekhaya ye-iron ore yayingaphantsi koko bekulindelwe, kudityaniswe nokwanda okukhulu konyaka nonyaka kokuthunyelwa kwe-ore phesheya, imveliso ye-ore yasekhaya ikhule ngaphezu kwexesha lonyaka, kwaye ixabiso le-iron ore laliphezulu. Phantsi kwengcamango yempendulo engalunganga, ixabiso le-iron ore lehla ngokukhawuleza nangokukhawuleza kunokuba bekulindelwe.
Inqanaba lesibini: ukususela ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli 2024 ukuya ekupheleni kukaMeyi 2024, "impendulo entle" kushishino, umda wobonelelo kunye nemfuno uphucukile, ixabiso le-black series kwikota yokuqala lehle kakhulu, ulindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kumazwe ngamazwe lwaqala ukunyuka ngo-Epreli, imfuno yesiphelo sasekhaya yabuya kwaye yayiphezulu kunokuba bekulindelwe, phantsi kwebhalansi entsha yobonelelo kunye nemfuno yentsimbi, inzuzo yesithuba yamashishini entsimbi yaphinda yanda kakhulu, imfuno yasekhaya yaqhubeka nokunyuka, unikezelo lwemigodi yaphesheya luyehla inyanga nenyanga, umda wobonelelo kunye nemfuno ye-iron ore uphucukile, kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo omtsha wezindlu "we-17 Meyi", isikhuthazo somgaqo-nkqubo wokunyusa ibhondi ekhethekileyo yexesha elide, ixabiso langoku le-iron ore lifikelele kwinqanaba elitsha eliphezulu.
Isigaba Sesithathu: Ukususela nge-23 kaMeyi 2024 ukuya kwi-23 kaSeptemba 2024, i-iron ore ibonakalise ipateni yokubonelela ngamandla kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka. Ngexesha le-macro policy window, iintengiselwano zemarike zibonakalise inyani ebuthathaka, kwaye ixabiso langoku le-iron ore lafikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu laza lehla okwethutyana. Ngokusetyenziswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yezindlu efanelekileyo ekupheleni kukaMeyi kunye nolindelo lwemida yemfuno ebuthathaka ebangelwa yimigaqo-nkqubo yentsimbi eluhlaza, ixabiso langoku le-iron ore liyaqhubeka nokuhla. Ngokukhutshwa kwemithetho eneenkcukacha zokulungisa imigaqo-nkqubo yezindlu kwizixeko ezininzi kulo lonke ilizwe, kunye nokukhutshwa kweBhunga leSizwe "kweSicwangciso sokuSebenza sokuLondolozwa kwamandla kunye nokuNcitshiswa kweKhabhoni sika-2024-2025" nge-30 kaMeyi, ukuphunyezwa okungqongqo kokutshintshwa kwamandla emveliso yentsimbi, kunye nokulawulwa okuqhubekayo kwemveliso yentsimbi eluhlaza ngo-2024, ulindelo lwemarike lokwehla okuncinci kwemfuno ye-iron ore luqale ukubila. Ukususela phakathi kuJulayi ukuya kwi-19 ka-Agasti, uphando "lwentlawulo yokuthumela ngaphandle" kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yamazwe amaninzi yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kwintsimbi ethunyelwa ngaphandle iye yacinezela ixabiso le-black series. Abarhwebi bagxile ekuthengiseni i-rebar endala esemgangathweni, nto leyo ebangela ukuba imarike iphelelwe lithemba. Inzuzo yeenkampani zentsimbi yehle ngokukhawuleza, imigodi yaphesheya kwezilwandle ihlale ibonelela kakhulu, amanqanaba empahla ekwizibuko aqhubekile nokunyuka, kwaye amaxabiso e-iron ore aqhubeke nokwehla de kube ngumhla wama-23 kuSeptemba.
Inqanaba lesi-4: Ulindelo olukhulayo lwe-Macro luqinisa, imfuno yasekhaya ixhasa amaxabiso, ulindelo lwemigaqo-nkqubo yasekhaya neyangaphandle luyavakala, kwaye amaqela amnyama afumana ukwehla okukhulu. Ngomhla we-19 kuSeptemba, i-Federal Reserve yanciphisa amazinga enzala ngamanqaku angama-50 ukuqala umjikelo wokunciphisa inzala, kwaye uqoqosho lwaphesheya lugcine ukuqina; Ngomhla wama-24 kuSeptemba, iBhanki yabantu yaseTshayina, i-State Administration for Financial Regulation, kunye ne-China Securities Regulatory Commission babambe inkomfa yabezindaba ukuze baqalise uthotho lwemigaqo-nkqubo yokukhuthaza. Umgaqo-nkqubo wemali wawunzima ngokwanda, kunye "neentolo ezintathu" zokunciphisa umlinganiselo weemfuno zokugcina, ukunciphisa inzala, kunye nokunciphisa inzala kwimali mboleko yezindlu ekhoyo. Le migaqo-nkqubo yahlangabezana nolindelo kwaye yadlula ulindelo, kunye nolindelo lokuzaliswa kwakhona kwe-iron ore ngaphambi kweholide yeSizwe kunye nokunyuka kwemfuno yokugqibela emva kweholide, okukhokelela ekunyukeni kwemveliso yasekhaya. Ngokufezekiswa okunzulu kwethemba elikhulu ngomhla wesi-8 ku-Okthobha, amaxabiso e-black series afikelele kwincopho yexeshana, kwaye inzuzo yezitofu zasekhaya zazinkulu kakhulu, ezazigcina inqanaba elithile lokuguquguquka kwimfuno ye-iron ore. Kunye nokwehla kokunikezelwa kwezimbiwa kwamanye amazwe kwikota yesine, ibhalansi yokunikezelwa kwesinyithi kunye nemfuno yayiqinile okwethutyana, nto leyo exhasa amaxabiso ukuba ahlale ephezulu.
Ingqikelelo yendlela yokuthengisa i-iron ore ngo-2025
Umbhali ukholelwa ukuba indlela yokubonelela ngamandla kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka yesinyithi ngo-2025 kunzima ukuyitshintsha, kwaye iziko lexabiso liza kuqhubeka litshintsha liyehla.
Ngokuphathelele ukunikezelwa, ukunyuka kwehlabathi kubonelelo lwe-iron ore ngo-2025 kuya kuba malunga neetoni ezingama-69 ezigidi (ukuba amaxabiso ahlala engaphezulu kwe-$100/toni). Ngokusekelwe kumlinganiselo wokuthunyelwa kwempahla, ukunyuka okupheleleyo kubonelelo lwe-iron ore yasekhaya ngo-2025 kuqikelelwa ukuba kumalunga neetoni ezingama-46.9 ezigidi, kuquka iitoni ezingama-21.65 ezigidi ezivela kwimigodi ephambili, iitoni ezili-15.25 ezigidi ezivela kwimigodi engekho ephambili, kunye neetoni ezili-10 ezigidi ezivela kwimigodi yasekhaya.
Ngokuphathelele imfuno, imfuno yesinyithi sangaphandle iya kuqhubeka nokuncipha ngo-2025. Ngokukhula ngokukhawuleza kwemizi-mveliso kunye namashishini asakhulayo eTshayina, isinyithi semizi-mveliso sibonisa umkhwa wokukhula okuphezulu, okukhulu, kunye nokukhula okuphezulu. Okwangoku, imeko yemfuno ingcono kunemarike yezindlu, kwaye iindawo eziphambili zokutsala kunye nomngcipheko zikwindawo yokuthumela ngaphandle imizi-mveliso yezindlu kunye nemizi-mveliso. Kuqikelelwa ukuba imfuno yasekhaya yesinyithi inokwehla malunga ne-1% ngo-2025.
Ngokuphathelele ixabiso, ukunikezelwa kunye nemfuno ye-iron ore kuya kuqhubeka kukhululekile ngo-2025, kwaye iziko lexabiso liya kuqhubeka lihla liye kwi-$100/ton, kunye noluhlu lokuguquguquka oluyi-$85/ton ukuya kwi-$115/ton. Ukunyuka kwemigaqo-nkqubo enkulu kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka bekuxineneyo, kwaye ukunyuka kokunikezelwa bekungaphezulu kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Ixabiso lilonke lidla ngokuba phezulu ngaphambili nangaphantsi ngasemva, kwaye umahluko wamaxabiso phakathi kweenyanga ze-iron ore kunye neemarike zasekhaya nezangaphandle unokuncitshiswa ngakumbi. Ukuba ixabiso lisondela kumda osezantsi, liya kuba nefuthe elinzima kwiiminerali eziveliswa ngaphakathi kunye nezingezizo eziqhelekileyo kunye neendleko zemveliso eziphezulu, kwaye kuya kubakho amandla okuqhuba amaxabiso aphezulu.
Ngamafutshane, umbhali ucebisa ukuba kusetyenziswe ngaphakathi koluhlu oluthile, ingakumbi kumashishini emveliso anee-odolo ezininzi zamaxabiso avaliweyo, ukuze kwandiswe izikhundla zawo zokukhusela izinto eziluhlaza kuluhlu olusezantsi kwaye kufakwe inzuzo kwimveliso.