Ekuqaleni kuka-Okthobha, amaxabiso e-iron ore afumene ukwehla kwexesha elifutshane, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuphucuka okulindelweyo kwimida yemfuno kunye nokukhuthaza ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eenqanawa zolwandle. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko iifektri zentsimbi ziqinisa imida yazo yemveliso kwaye kwangaxeshanye, amazinga eenqanawa zolwandle ehla kakhulu. Ixabiso liye lafikelela kwinqanaba eliphantsi kunyaka. Ngokuphathelele amaxabiso apheleleyo, ixabiso le-iron ore kulo nyaka liye lehla ngaphezulu kwama-50% ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphezulu, kwaye ixabiso sele lehlile. Nangona kunjalo, ngokwembono yeziseko zokubonelela kunye nemfuno, uluhlu lwangoku lwezibuko lufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwixesha elifanayo kwiminyaka emine edlulileyo. Njengoko izibuko liqhubeka nokuqokelelana, amaxabiso e-iron ore abuthathaka kulo nyaka kuya kuba nzima ukuwatshintsha.
Ukuthunyelwa kwemigodi eqhelekileyo kusenokwanda
Ngo-Okthobha, ukuthunyelwa kwesinyithi e-Ostreliya naseBrazil kwehle unyaka nonyaka kunye nenyanga nenyanga. Kwelinye icala, bekungenxa yokugcinwa kwemigodi. Kwelinye icala, ukuthunyelwa kwesinyithi elwandle kuchaphazele ukuthunyelwa kwesinyithi kwezinye iimigodi ukuya kwinqanaba elithile. Nangona kunjalo, ngokwendlela yokubala ekujoliswe kuyo kunyaka-mali, ukubonelelwa kwemigodi emine emikhulu kwikota yesine kuya kuba nokwanda okuthile unyaka nonyaka kunye nenyanga nenyanga.
Imveliso yesinyithi eRio Tinto kwikota yesithathu yehle ngeetoni ezizigidi ezi-2.6 ngonyaka. Ngokwenjongo yonyaka yeRio Tinto yokunciphisa umda weetoni ezizigidi ezingama-320, imveliso yekota yesine iya kunyuka ngetoni ezizigidi ezi-1 ukusuka kwikota edlulileyo, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kweetoni ezizigidi ezi-1.5. Imveliso yesinyithi eBHP kwikota yesithathu yehle ngeetoni ezizigidi ezi-3.5 ngonyaka, kodwa igcine umgomo wayo wonyaka-mali weetoni ezizigidi ezingama-278-288 ezingatshintshanga, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba iphucuke kwikota yesine. I-FMG ithunyelwe kakuhle kwiikota ezintathu zokuqala. Kwikota yesithathu, imveliso inyuke ngeetoni ezizigidi ezi-2.4 ngonyaka nonyaka. Kunyaka-mali ka-2022 (Julayi 2021-Juni 2022), isikhokelo sokuthunyelwa kwesinyithi sigcinwe ngaphakathi koluhlu lwe-180 yezigidi ukuya kwi-185 yezigidi zeetoni. Ukwanda okuncinci kulindeleke nakwikota yesine. Imveliso yeVale kwikota yesithathu inyuke ngeetoni ezingama-750,000 unyaka nonyaka. Ngokwezibalo zeetoni ezingama-325 ezigidi kunyaka wonke, imveliso kwikota yesine inyuke ngeetoni ezi-2 ezigidi ukusuka kwikota edlulileyo, nto leyo eya kunyuka ngeetoni ezi-7 ezigidi unyaka nonyaka. Ngokubanzi, imveliso yesinyithi kwimigodi emine emikhulu kwikota yesine iya kunyuka ngaphezulu kweetoni ezi-3 ezigidi inyanga nenyanga kunye nangaphezulu kweetoni ezi-5 ezigidi unyaka nonyaka. Nangona amaxabiso aphantsi enempembelelo ethile ekuthunyelweni kwemigodi, imigodi ephambili isaqhubeka inenzuzo kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ifezekise iinjongo zayo zonyaka wonke ngaphandle kokunciphisa ngabom ukuthunyelwa kwesinyithi.
Ngokuphathelele imigodi engeyiyo eyoluntu, ukususela kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ukungeniswa kwe-iron ore eTshayina evela kumazwe angeyiyo eyoluntu kuye kwehla kakhulu unyaka nonyaka. Ixabiso le-iron ore lehla, kwaye imveliso yeminye i-iron ore ebiza kakhulu yaqala ukwehla. Ngoko ke kulindeleke ukuba ukungeniswa kwezimbiwa ezingeyiyo eyoluntu kuqhubeke kwehla unyaka nonyaka, kodwa impembelelo iyonke ayiyi kuba nkulu kakhulu.
Ngokuphathelele kwimigodi yasekhaya, nangona umdla wokuvelisa imigodi yasekhaya nawo uncipha, xa kujongwa ukuba imiqathango yemveliso ngoSeptemba inamandla kakhulu, imveliso yentsimbi yenyanga kwikota yesine ngokusisiseko ayizukuba ngaphantsi kwaleyo yangoSeptemba. Ke ngoko, imigodi yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba ihlale imile kwikota yesine, kunye nokwehla konyaka nonyaka malunga neetoni ezi-5 zezigidi.
Ngokubanzi, kubekho ukwanda kokuthunyelwa kwemigodi ephambili kwikota yesine. Kwangaxeshanye, xa kujongwa ukuba imveliso yentsimbi yehagu phesheya kwezilwandle nayo iyehla inyanga nenyanga, kulindeleke ukuba inani lentsimbi yesinyithi ethunyelwa eTshayina liphinde libuye. Ke ngoko, intsimbi yesinyithi ethunyelwa eTshayina iya kwanda unyaka nonyaka kunye nenyanga nenyanga. Imigodi engeyiyo eqhelekileyo kunye nemigodi yasekhaya inokuba nokwehla okuthile unyaka nonyaka. Nangona kunjalo, indawo yokwehla kwenyanga nenyanga incinci. Ubonelelo lulonke kwikota yesine lusakhula.
Uluhlu lwezinto ezikwizibuko lugcinwa lukwimeko yokudinwa
Ukuqokelelwa kwesinyithi kwizibuko kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kucacile kakhulu, nto leyo ebonisa ukunikezelwa okukhululekileyo kunye nemfuno yesinyithi. Ukusukela ngo-Okthobha, izinga lokuqokelelwa liye landa kwakhona. Ukususela nge-29 ka-Okthobha, uluhlu lwesinyithi kwizibuko lunyuke lwaya kwi-145 yezigidi zeetoni, ixabiso eliphezulu kwixesha elifanayo kwiminyaka emine edlulileyo. Ngokwezibalo zedatha yokubonelela, uluhlu lwezibuko lunokufikelela kwi-155 yezigidi zeetoni ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, kwaye uxinzelelo olukhoyo luya kuba lukhulu nangakumbi ngelo xesha.
Inkxaso yecala leendleko iqala ukuba buthathaka
Ekuqaleni kuka-Okthobha, kubekho ukwehla okuncinci kwimarike yentsimbi, ngenxa yempembelelo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso okuthutha ulwandle. Ngelo xesha, imithwalo ye-C3 esuka eTubarao, eBrazil ukuya eQingdao, eTshayina yayikhe yasondela kwi-US$50/ton, kodwa kubekho ukwehla okukhulu kutshanje. Imithwalo yehle yaya kwi-US$24/ton ngoNovemba 3, kwaye imithwalo yaselwandle esuka eNtshona Australia ukuya eTshayina yayiyi-US$12 kuphela. /Ton. Ixabiso lentsimbi kwimigodi ephambili lingaphantsi kwe-US$30/ton. Ke ngoko, nangona ixabiso lentsimbi yentsimbi lehle kakhulu, imigodi ngokusisiseko isenenzuzo, kwaye inkxaso ecaleni kweendleko iya kuba buthathaka.
Lilonke, nangona ixabiso le-iron ore liye lafikelela kwinqanaba eliphantsi kunyaka, kusekho indawo engaphantsi nokuba ivela kwiziseko zobonelelo kunye neemfuno okanye kwicala leendleko. Kulindeleke ukuba imeko ebuthathaka ihlale ingatshintshi kulo nyaka. Nangona kunjalo, kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso lediski le-iron ore futures linokuba nenkxaso ethile kufutshane ne-500 yuan/ton, kuba ixabiso eliyi-spot ye-super special powder ehambelana nexabiso lediski le-500 yuan/ton likufutshane ne-320 yuan/ton, elikufutshane nelona nqanaba liphantsi kwiminyaka emi-4. Oku kuya kuba nenkxaso ethile kwixabiso. Kwangaxeshanye, phantsi kwemvelaphi yokuba inzuzo ngetoni yediski yentsimbi isephezulu, kunokubakho imali yokunciphisa umlinganiselo we-snail ore, oxhasa ngokungathanga ngqo ixabiso le-iron ore.